2.2.4 Estimating future waste generation rates and quantities

Future waste trends, in terms of quantities for the planning period should be estimated using the information collected on the domestic waste generation rates per capita for each socio-economic category/types i.e. the population, population distribution, and commercial and industrial waste generation rates.

In this instance, the information is taken as it is from section 2.1.1.under demographics. What has changed is that calculations were made to determine what the future population growth rates would be wherein an assumption has been made that if the growth estimates remained constant for the next 10 years and the per capita waste generation rates also remained constant (as what they were in the 2006 SOER) then results would be as follows:

Table 10: Estimation of future waste generation rates and quantities

Type of settlement Base population Growth estimates13 Population distribution Current domestic waste generation rates per capita14 Future15 domestic waste generation rates per capita (in 10 years)
High income, low density 100 000 0.86% per annum Age: youth: 50 000, middle age: 40 000 and old age: 10 00016
Gender: male: 40 000 , female: 60 000
Education: primary: 30 000 , secondary: 40 000 and tertiary: 30 000		 100 000x470.85 kg = 47 085 000 kg's/ person/year 108 600 x 470.85kg/person/year = 51 134 310 kg's /person/year
Then convert to tons:
51 134 310 ÷ 1000=51134.31 tons
Middle income, middle density 200 000 1.62% Age: youth: 100 000, middle age: 60 000 and old age: 40 000
Gender: male:70 000 , female: 130 000
Education: primary: 60 000, secondary: 90 000 and tertiary: 50 000		 200 000x 270.1kg = 54 020 000 kg's/person/year 232400x 270.1kg/person/year= 62771240kg's/person/year
Then convert to tons:
62771240 ÷ 1000=62771.24. tons
Low income, high density (including Informal settlement) 500 000 3.8% Age: youth: 250 000, middle age: 150 00 and old age: 100 000
Gender: male: 200 000, female: 300 000
Education: primary: 300 000, secondary: 150 000 and tertiary: 50 000		 500 000x 149.65kg= 74825 000 kg's person/year 690 000x149.65kg=103 258 500 kg/person/year
Then convert to tons:
103 258 500 ÷ 1000=103258.5 tons
Rural settlements 300 000 2.5% Age: youth: 150 000, middle age: 90 000 and old age: 60 000
Gender: male: 110 000, female: 190 000
Education: primary: 140 000, secondary: 90 000 and tertiary: 70 000		 300 000x 149.65kg=44895 000 kg's person/year 375 000x149.65kg= 561 187 50 kg's/person/year
Then convert to tons:
561 187 50 ÷ 1000=56118.75 tons

  1. Assuming that the population growth rates will remain constant for the next 10 years
  2. Assuming that the per capita waste generation rates would be according to the 2006 State of the Environment Report for all income categories:
    low income=0.41kg/person/day Middle income=0.74kg/person/day,
    high income=1.29kg/person/day
  3. 10 years time assuming that the waste generation rates would be according to the 2006 State of Environment figures.
  4. Age-Youth=0-35yrs; Middle age=36-60; old age >61

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